28 May 1402 at 21:19
A UN report warns that the unprecedented rise in global temperatures is likely to break the 1.5°C threshold in the next five years, raising the global warming alarm.
In its latest annual assessment, the United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned that there is a 66% chance that we will exceed the 1.5°C threshold for the first time in the next five years, breaking the global warming danger threshold.
This is the first time in human history that such an increase has been recorded. The new report is a stark warning that we must act now to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to zero.
Scientists have warned that crossing the 1.5°C threshold would greatly increase the risk of reaching tipping points that could lead to irreversible climate collapse.
Among the terrible crises of this problem, we can mention the collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, extreme heat waves, severe drought, water crisis, and severe weather in large parts of the globe.
The impending crisis makes record heat inevitable
About 200 countries pledged to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius or less in the 2015 Paris Agreement.
The Paris Agreement (Accord de Paris) is under the framework of the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in relation to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, adaptation and finance.
The purpose of this agreement is to keep the global average temperature increase below 2 degrees Celsius and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, as well as align financial flows with a path towards low greenhouse emissions and Climate development is resilient.
But now the global warming alarm bell has violated this agreement for the first time. Petri Talas, a Finnish meteorologist and the Secretary General of the World Meteorological Organization, said:
A critical and irreversible point is expected to be created in the coming months. This crisis will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory. This crisis will have far-reaching consequences for health, food security, water management and the environment. We must be ready.
El Nino phenomenon and its impact on sounding the alarm of global warming
The crisis mentioned by Petri Talas is called “El Niño”. This is one of the world’s famous weather cycles, which every 2 to 7 years causes major anomalies in the climate of the entire planet. Among these anomalies, we can mention sudden floods, droughts, famines and epidemics.
El Nino occurs when the winds that normally carry warm water westward from South America to Asia weaken, keeping most of the warm water in place.
This greatly affects weather patterns around the world; It makes South America wetter and brings drought (and sometimes famine) to places like Australia, Indonesia, northern China, and northeastern Brazil.
After the El Niño of 1997-98, which killed about 23,000 people, American scientists installed a network of floating guides across the Pacific Ocean.
Scientific research into how the atmosphere and ocean currents work can allow meteorologists to make long-term predictions of weather conditions, a vital aid to preparing for floods and droughts.
In the United States, El Niño tends to make the northern regions warmer and drier and the southern regions wetter, and because it causes warm water to expand and stay closer to the ocean surface, it also warms the atmosphere around the world.
The latest WMO report, covering the years 2023 to 2027, says there is a 98 percent chance that one of the next five years will be the warmest on record, breaking the 2016 record of 2.3 degrees Fahrenheit (1.28 degrees Celsius).
The possibility of higher temperature fluctuations is increasing
The probability of breaking the 1.5°C temperature threshold was close to zero in 2015, increased to 48% in 2022, and 66% just one year later!
Much of this warming is unevenly distributed, the researchers said. For example, the Arctic will see temperature swings three times greater than the rest of the world, which accelerates melting and can severely affect climate systems such as the jet stream and the North Atlantic Current, systems that regulate temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. are very important.
Meanwhile, rainfall is expected to decrease across Central America, Australia, Indonesia and the Amazon. Deforestation, climate change, and rainforest fires have all lost some of their resilience since the 2000s, leading scientists to worry about a tipping point.
The report notes that there is only a 32% chance that the five-year average will exceed the 1.5°C threshold, but this is still a significant increase from 2015, when it was close to zero.
“This report doesn’t mean we’re going to go above 1.5 degrees Celsius forever,” Talas said. “However, the WMO is sounding the global warming alarm to warn that we will temporarily breach the 1.5°C level with increasing frequency.”
In the years between 2017 and 2021, this crisis was a 10 percent chance. But greenhouse gas emissions caused by human activities have increased the average global temperature by more than 1 degree Celsius since the end of the 19th century.
It notes that the global mean temperature in 2022 is about 1.15°C above the 1850-1900 average, despite the cooling effect of La Nina (the water in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific is colder than normal). This phenomenon is the opposite of the “El Nino” phenomenon and the condition when the water temperature becomes warmer than the average sea temperature.
Temperatures are currently rising at about 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade. We now have more than a century of global average temperature data. That means new records should get harder to achieve, not easier.
If there was no trend, we would expect to see fewer records over time and the data we collect would better capture the full range of natural climate change.
But as we directly add to the global warming trend, more heat records will be set globally and locally. Human influence on climate is driving temperatures to record highs with alarming frequency.
Although we cannot yet say that we have failed to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, the world is approaching the level of 1.5 degrees Celsius of global warming due to the continued emission of greenhouse gases. The prediction of a possible year above that level should serve as a warning and alarm of increased global warming.